Experts’ picks and best bets: Mikaela Mayer’s jab, movement vs. Sandy Ryan’s power
Mikaela Mayer and Sandy Ryan meet again on Saturday (ESPN/ESPN+, 10 p.m. ET, with prelims at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+) in a rematch of Mayer’s close majority-decision victory in September. Mayer edged Ryan with scorecards of 97-93, 96-94 and 95-95, but there was some controversy outside of the ring. Ryan was hit with a can of red paint while leaving the hotel to head to Madison Square Garden hours before the fight. Ryan blamed Mayer’s team for the attack, something they have denied.
Add to that the fact that Kay Koroma, who had been training Mayer for most of her career, started to train Ryan ahead of the first encounter. The animosity was visible when the fighters were introduced.
Ryan (7-2-1, 3 KOs) started the fight slowly but landed her powerful jab with ease. Mayer (20-2, 5 KOs) suffered a small cut over her right eye in an all-action fourth round. Two judges scored that round for Mayer, who landed 17 power punches to 12 for Ryan. Mayer then finished the fight strongly, winning the last three rounds in two of the judges’ scorecards.
Body punches were a factor in that first fight. Of Mayer’s 44 punches to the body, 39 were power punches — 10 more than Ryan. At the end of the fight, Mayer had landed just one more punch than Ryan (186 to 185), showing how close the fight was.
Can the rematch be any different? Andres Ferrari spoke to Hall of Famer boxing commentator Al Bernstein and former junior lightweight and lightweight champion Erica Anabella Farias — who fought Ryan twice and Mayer once — for their insight and predictions. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker added his analysis on the main event and on the lightweight bout between William Zepeda and Tevin Farmer, who fight in Cancun, Mexico, on Saturday, in a rematch of Zepeda’s split-decision win in November.
Editor’s note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.
Al Bernstein, boxing commentator and member of the International Boxing Hall of Fame
How the fight could play out
I think it’s going to be very much like the first fight. Ryan got off to a little bit of a slow start in that fight. Of course, we all know that she may have been affected a little bit by the incident that happened that very day. Obviously, the idea of that being repeated [ahead of the rematch] seems like it wouldn’t happen. She’ll go into the ring unencumbered by that kind of emotion, and I think [her team] will make a conscious effort for her not to have that same kind of slow start.
I think Ryan will be a little bit more aggressive in the early rounds than she was in the first fight. But this rematch really boils down to Mayer being able to be more of a volume puncher than Ryan, as she was for portions of that last fight. Keep control of the geography of the ring and keep Ryan on the outside so she can reel off those combinations. And I think we’re going to continue to see some movement from Mayer as we did in the first fight, where she throws her combinations, then moves away from harm.
From Ryan’s standpoint, I think the trick is to use the jab a little bit more, and then once she’s there, she’s going to crank up those left hooks to the body and the head. And I think she’s going to try and get in the inside and rough Mayer up if she can, and get off to a quicker start. I can’t see this fight being anything other than what the first one was. I think it’s going to be a close fight, and I think it’s going to go to a decision again.
How does Ryan win this fight?
I think her mission in this fight is to get inside Mayer’s jab and get in position where she can throw those left hooks that she throws so well, to both the body and the head, and double it up and be just in that mid-range of punching, not on the outside. From the outside, she’s got a problem against Mayer. She’s going to want to get on the inside where she can work the body. And I think that’s something she is going to look for early in the fight — if she can. Another thing she has to do is make sure she cuts off the ring because it’s not that Mayer was constantly moving, but she was moving enough to use angles very effectively and keep Ryan from setting herself up to land. And the other thing she really wants to do is put Mayer on the ropes. That’s the big thing for her. The more she can do that, the better off it is.
How does Mayer win this fight?
She wins by using the jab effectively and adding enough movement to use angles in this fight and be the busier fighter, which she was during a lot of the first fight. She’s a really good combination puncher, and the more she can do that and keep Ryan outside and control the ring, that’s where she wants it. And she’s got to stay off the ropes. I don’t think that either fighter is going to knock out the other fighter. I don’t see that happening. So winning rounds in this fight, and man, as Ryan would attest to, the first round is as important as the 10th, so every round in this fight is a jewel that you want to collect. I thought the last fight, while you can make a strong case for Mayer winning, I thought one of the cards was too wide. There was one wide one. Both the 95-95 and 96-94 Mayer one, to me, were more appropriate than the 97-93. I just don’t know how you can give Ryan only three rounds in that fight. That doesn’t seem appropriate to me.
X factor: No distractions
3:03
Sandy Ryan accuses someone from Mikaela Mayer’s team of paint attack
Sandy Ryan explains why she thinks someone from opponent Mikaela Mayer’s team threw red paint on her.
I think one of the reasons why this match is a good one to have a rematch is, number one, it was so close in the first fight and so entertaining. And number two, we’re going to see it now without the question of whether Ryan’s going into the fight with a negative as she did the last fight. While that’s not even what makes this fight the most interesting, you can’t discount the fact that Ryan may have had an issue because of what happened that day. Now, that doesn’t take away from Mayer’s win in any way to me, but it is a factor that you must consider. So that’s why this rematch is interesting. These are two perfectly evenly matched fighters, and they’re going in on hopefully an even playing field this time. And we’re going to see what happens. And then there’s the trainer issue — there’s so many layers to this leading up to this fight.
Who wins?
I think it’s going to be very similar to the first fight and I think it’s going to go to a decision, and I think it’s going to be close again. It’s a perfect matchup stylistically, and that’s why, to me, that was one of the best fights of the year last year. I don’t know if I even have a prediction on this. I honestly think that it could go either way. To me, this is a totally pick-’em fight. I honestly wouldn’t even lean to one or the other because I think even though Mayer won the first one, it was such a razor thin fight, and I could easily see Mayer continuing what she did and have it be just enough to edge it. But I could certainly see Ryan doing better in some of the early rounds and being able to bank more rounds than she did before and then having enough to win.
I’m sure Ryan is mentally tough to not let [the incident] bother her, and I’m sure there will be no recurrence. So, I think this is going to be decided in the ring between two good fighters — despite all the other theatrics surrounding this. This one’s going to come down to X’s and O’s and the ability of the fighters. I think it’s going to be a great fight.
Erica Anabella Farias, two-division champion
How does Mayer win this fight?
Mayer is now the current champion and Ryan becomes the challenger. Mayer is going to have to defend her championship by being very efficient and working round by round. Mayer is a boxer who starts working from the fourth round onwards; perhaps she lets her opponent settle in or perhaps she is the one who is settling in so that she can work better in the later rounds. She is a very timing-based boxer, and she works hard for the judges. Because she is fast and has the quality to connect big punches, I think that perhaps in the closing stages of each round, the scales will tip more in Mayer’s favor, being the champion. Ryan is a very temperamental boxer who at times gets a little carried away in certain situations, and that is where she makes mistakes, which I think Mayer will take full advantage of.
Mayer is very good with her timing, and she worked hard on her jab. That was something that made it very difficult for me to get to her when we fought. My fight with her was also close and it was a fight that also had a lot of intensity. She’s a boxer who forces you to be intense because she’s very active in the ring, she’s very intelligent, she knows how to manage the ring. I think that if Mayer controls the distance and the timing from the start, she will win comfortably, even if Ryan tries to apply pressure, because that’s where she makes mistakes. I think that Ryan will have to be unemotional to win the fight, which I think will be very difficult for her, especially knowing that she is the challenger. Mayer has a lot of experience, she knows how to manage the ring very well, she knows what she’s doing and she’s had fights where she’s been overwhelmed by her opponents — it’s even happened to her with me — and she never let herself be overwhelmed by it. That’s why I think Mayer can easily take the victory.
How does Ryan win this fight?
Convince the judges and not be so hot-tempered. Work for the judges. This is a fight that will probably go the full distance. They are two athletes of a very high caliber, and I’m sure they are trained hard for this fight, for the occasion, and it will be difficult for there to be a split decision here. So, if it’s a fight that’s going to be decided on the cards, Ryan is going to have to convince the judges and not be led by her temperament, which is sometimes where she gets disorganized and makes mistakes, which I think is where Mayer’s advantage is going to be.
Ryan is explosive to the body. But if you can take it — because I don’t consider her a knockout fighter, but one who can break her opponents apart with body punches — and you’re physically fit, as I think Mayer is, she will be able to counter that. I don’t think Ryan will have problems continuing to let go on the body, and Mayer can’t allow that to happen all the time because that accumulates points at the end of each round. For me, Mayer’s speed — hands and legs — is going to be very important, not letting herself be overwhelmed by Ryan and having her cut her off, because that is going to be one of Ryan’s advantages that can make the difference in the end.
Who wins?
It’s going to be a close fight again. Ryan must come up with another strategy because I think that what they used in the first fight didn’t work that well for her. So, they should change the plan this time. Because she threw everything she had to throw, what more damage can she do? So, she must look for another variant to be able to trouble Mayer, not come out with the same variant that came out last time. If she doesn’t do that, it’s going to be another loss. I’ll go with Mayer by decision.
Ian Parker’s best bets
Mikaela Mayer vs. Sandy Ryan
After a back and forth fight the first time around, the odds currently sit at -115 for Ryan and Mayer at -105, which is a bit surprising to me. I expected Mayer to be at least a -145 favorite being that she did win the first fight by majority decision despite it being close throughout. At these current odds, I believe the value sits with the champ, Mayer. Despite Ryan having the edge in power, Mayer’s speed and footwork should help her to get another decision victory. If Mayer gets aggressive early on and extends her output in the earlier rounds, she will be able to separate herself on the scorecards and retain her title.
Prediction: Mayer to win by decision
William Zepeda vs Tevin Farmer
This is another rematch, but the difference here is that Zepeda, the defending champion, is a -750 favorite. Taking -750 on the moneyline is not something I would ever suggest, but if you need a parlay piece to get you into plus money, the moneyline here can potentially get you there, as I don’t see Zepeda losing this fight. In their last fight, outside of one scary moment where Farmer tagged him in the later rounds, the rest of the fight was all Zepeda, and I expect the same here. If you don’t want to take a chance on -750 as the anchor of a parlay — understandably so — I would take the over 10.5 rounds at -170 as Farmer’s cardio and durability proved to be very solid last time out. If you are feeling a bit greedy, take Zepeda to win by decision at +125.
Prediction: Zepeda vs. Farmer over 10.5 rounds, and/or Zepeda by decision at +125
Brian Norman Jr. vs. Derrieck Cuevas
Another big favorite is the champion Norman, who is sitting at a -600 for his WBO welterweight title defense against Cuevas. If you don’t want to take the -750 on Zepeda in a parlay, you can swap him out for Norman. Skill for skill, this fight should be closer than the odds say. However, Norman looked fantastic in his most recent fight, a 10th-round KO of Giovani Santillan in May 2024, showing great durability and power. Regarding Cuevas, who hasn’t fought since December 2023, I believe in ring rust and have seen so many times that regardless of how good you are, too much time away from the ring can cause a fighter to question their own skills and be gun shy when throwing punches. As skilled and powerful as Cuevas is, I believe that stylistically this is a tough matchup to come back to off of the long layoff. Look for Norman to put his power on display and find Cuevas’ chin before the final bell.
Prediction: Norman to win by TKO/KO
