China’s tech rally is just getting started, despite tariff shocks
Worries about tariffs may have rattled global investors, but analysts still expect China’s technology sector to keep riding this year’s wave of interest in homegrown generative artificial intelligence. The latest salvo of U.S. tariffs on China and its Southeast Asia trading partners sent Chinese stocks tumbling at the open Thursday, but they closed well off their lows. Local markets were closed Friday for a holiday. “Many of the larger tech names (and most of the consumer names) have limited exposure to the U.S. market despite some overreaction at first,” Kai Wang, Asia equity strategist at Morningstar, said in a statement Thursday. “We are expecting some fiscal policy intervention,” he said, “should there be incremental macro weakness.” China’s finance ministry indicated last month it was holding onto some dry powder given domestic and overseas uncertainties. Chinese policymakers are expected to hold a regular meeting later this month. Chinese tech stock valuations still look inexpensive relative to those in the U.S., Citi China equity strategist Pierre Lau and a team said in a report Thursday. They pointed out that average price-to-earnings ratio of seven leading tech-related Chinese stocks is 52% below that of U.S “Magnificent Seven” — not yet recovered to the historical average of 33% in the past five years. “We prefer domestic over export plays amid uncertainties stemming from higher tariffs,” the Citi strategists said. They also prefer services over goods sectors, and also like growth more than value. The firm is overweight on China internet, technology and transportation stock sectors. Citi’s top China stock buys include social media and gaming company Tencent , electric car giant BYD and home appliance company Haier , all listed in Hong Kong. Growing investor interest In a sign of how much investor interest has grown, nearly one-quarter of international investors have turned more positive on Chinese tech, the Citi strategists said, citing the firm’s U.S. marketing work last month. Global emerging markets equity funds’ allocation to China hit a 16-month high in late March , according to EPFR. Chinese startup DeepSeek released an AI model in late January that claimed to outperform OpenAI’s ChatGPT, despite U.S. restrictions on Chinese access to advanced chips for AI training. AI adoption is also expected to help Chinese companies cut costs , while policy aims to support consumer growth. Initial upgrades to Chinese companies’ earnings expectations are being driven by high-tech sectors and selected consumer companies, HSBC analysts pointed out Thursday. An index of 10 major Chinese tech companies traded in Hong Kong closed 1.2% lower Thursday, slightly better than the overall Hang Seng index’s 1.5% drop. The tech index remains more than 20% higher year to date, versus gains of just under 14% for the Hang Seng index. Another sector investment analysts say is relatively sheltered from the new tariffs is Chinese health care as pharmaceuticals were excluded from Trump’s latest round of tariffs. “Even if Trump imposed any tariffs in the future, most Chinese biotechs have U.S. partners and are not considered exporters, and tariffs on bulk drug makers could easily be transferred to downstream U.S. pharma,” Jefferies equity analyst Cui Cui and a team said in a note Wednesday. They also don’t expect reviving targeted legislation, such as the expired Biosecure Act , to become a U.S. priority soon. The Biosecure Act sought to restrict Chinese drug companies such as Wuxi Biologics from federal contracts. “Given that lowering drug prices in the U.S. is supported by both Republicans and Democrats, giving U.S. pharma companies the flexibility to operate efficiently and maintain an optimal cost structure is essential,” the Jefferies analysts said, highlighting expectations that Wuxi Biologics can operate at least twice as efficiently than competitors Samsung Bio and Lonza. Hong Kong-listed Wuxi Biologics said in late March that it expected ” accelerated and profitable growth in 2025 .” Jefferies rates the stock a buy. However, the extent of new U.S. tariffs and impact on China’s economy remains unclear. Morningstar’s Wang cautioned that tariffs would indirectly affect the tech sector given the likely negative impact on China’s gross domestic product, while market volatility may increase.
