South Carolina entered the women’s NCAA tournament undefeated and as the heavy favorite each of the past two years. But this season, every team among the top 16 seeds has at least two losses — which means the battle for the national championship feels more wide open.

That said, no team seeded below No. 3 has ever won the NCAA women’s college basketball title. Three have done it as the No. 3 seed, most recently LSU in 2023.

Early-round upsets have become more commonplace, even on the home courts of top-16 seeds. It happened three times last year, with No. 5 seeds Colorado and Baylor and No. 7 Duke advancing to the Sweet 16.

How do the No. 1 seeds stack up this year? South Carolina is trying to repeat, while Texas (2004) and USC (1986) seek their first Final Four in a long time, and UCLA seeks its first in the NCAA era.

Which team will be the last one standing when the nets are cut down on April 6 at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida?

Despite being the No. 2 overall seed behind the Bruins, South Carolina is the most popular pick to win the 2025 title among nearly two dozen women’s college basketball analysts, writers and commentators we polled across ESPN. Nine of 22 voters picked the Gamecocks to win it all. UConn, a No. 2 seed seeking its first championship since Breanna Stewart’s senior year in 2016, had the second-most votes at six, followed by three votes apiece for USC and UCLA.

ESPN looks at the field and what we might see in the early rounds and beyond.

Jump to: Expert picks | Title game matchup

What is each 1-seed’s potential flaw?

Alexa Philippou: UCLA is in relatively uncharted territory, as none of its players have played beyond the Sweet 16; coach Cori Close has advanced past that round just once, in 2018. In its two wins over UCLA, USC was able to slow down the Bruins by making life hell for Lauren Betts (granted, most teams don’t have the size and physicality to do that, especially not in Spokane 1). But if that happens, it makes it even more important that other players step up around her. Notably, the team shot 7-for-33 on 3-pointers in those losses to USC. Compare that to how the Bruins made 10 of 21 3-point attempts in their blowout win over South Carolina in November.

Michael Voepel: Texas’ offense becomes more of a concern the deeper the Longhorns go in the tournament. Texas was the top defensive team in the SEC, holding opponents to 55.9 points, and was sixth in scoring offense (78.9 PPG). But the Longhorns average just 3.2 3-pointers per game and shoot 29.6% behind the arc. If they advance to the Sweet 16, and if seeds hold, they would face Ohio State (6.5 3-pointers per game, 34.2%). Then TCU (9.6 3’s per game, 37.6%) could be up next in the regional final. So there will be a lot of pressure on Texas’ defense to make it harder for teams to hit from the outside.

For South Carolina, rebounding could be a concern. The Gamecocks are averaging 42.5 RPG, their lowest since their current Final Four run began in 2021. During that time, the Gamecocks’ best rebounding season was in 2022-23, when they were second in Division I at 49.5 RPG. The Gamecocks were outrebounded in each of their losses this season: by 7 against UCLA, by 6 against Texas and by 16 against UConn. In tight games, rebounding can make all the difference.

Charlie Creme: USC can sometimes be too dependent on JuJu Watkins. There’s no disputing that Kiki Iriafen had an outstanding season, and by the time late February came, the highly regarded freshman class, led by Kennedy Smith and Avery Howell, was more reliable. But there were games when it was Watkins or bust. Sometimes it works, such as in the Trojans’ first victory over UCLA this season when Watkins scored 38 points. Losses to Iowa and the Bruins in the Big Ten championship game illustrated what can happen when she struggles and there is no to help. Once the regionals arrive, USC might not be able to win a championship if Watkins isn’t brilliant for those final four games.

South Carolina edged UConn as the favorite among our voters. What are the keys to a Gamecocks repeat?

Philippou: It feels like a South Carolina repeat would likely come at the hands of a dominant tournament from Joyce Edwards, MiLaysia Fulwiley or both players. Dawn Staley has a plethora of options she can put on the floor — the Gamecocks lead the nation with 41.5 bench points per game — though it often feels like the ones most capable of changing the complexity of the game are those reserves. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see a big game or two from Tessa Johnson, who remains the team’s best 3-point shooter at 41.1% and famously showed out in the 2024 national title game.

Voepel: It’s key for the Gamecocks to defend at their highest level — they held opponents to 57.8 PPG — and to get the version of junior forward Chloe Kitts that won her SEC tournament MVP honors. She averaged 16.7 points and 7.7 rebounds in those three games.

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Paige Bueckers excited to be healthy heading into NCAA tournament

Paige Bueckers shares her expectations for final NCAA tournament run with UConn before moving on to the WNBA.

Is this the year UConn finally wins its first title since 2016?

Voepel: The Huskies have a good enough team and more than enough motivation to do it. But the path is tough: They potentially would have to beat three No. 1 seeds to win the championship. That makes it a very difficult task, even for as accomplished a program as UConn.

Philippou: UConn earned my pick, but as Voepel laid out, it’s not an easy rout. The Huskies aren’t flawless — questions remain about their post depth and impact beyond Sarah Strong — but Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and Strong are arguably the best trio in the country. That, combined with Geno Auriemma’s ability to get his teams to peak in March and the urgency to win for Bueckers in her final year with the program, could be a dangerous recipe for opposing teams. There was no more impressive win this season than when the Huskies beat South Carolina by 29, and while they might not shoot that great each tournament game, they still have more ways to win than they’ve had the past few times they’ve been to the Final Four.

Creme: The ingredients are there: experience, depth, offensive diversity and, finally, health. And every year that Bueckers has been on the court for the NCAA tournament, the Huskies have reached the Final Four. With a team this gifted offensively — tops in the nation in field goal percentage and points per play — taking the next step is in the cards. But my pick for the title is South Carolina, with the Gamecocks narrowly beating UConn in the final. The meeting between these two in February showed exactly what these Huskies can accomplish. That version of UConn will win the program’s 12th title.

Outside of the top eight teams, who’s another team seeded third or lower that could reach the Final Four?

Voepel: LSU, the No. 3 seed in Spokane 1, is flying under the radar, especially for a team that won the NCAA title just two years ago. The Tigers were undefeated in nonconference play. Until late February, their only losses were to No. 1 seeds South Carolina and Texas. Then an overtime loss at Alabama on Feb. 27 started a skid, and they enter the NCAA tournament having lost three of their last four games. Guard Flau’Jae Johnson (shin inflammation) hasn’t played since that Alabama loss, but is expected back in the tournament.

If healthy, LSU is a dangerous team with Johnson, Aneesah Morrow and Mikaylah Williams as big scoring threats. If seeds hold, LSU could face NC State in the regional semifinals; the Tigers beat the Wolfpack on Nov. 27. And then LSU could face UCLA in the Elite Eight; the Tigers beat the Bruins in last year’s Sweet 16.

Philippou: I picked Notre Dame to advance to Tampa in my bracket. If the version of the Irish that we saw at the end of February and early March shows up, that selection will look foolish. But if the version that beat USC, Texas and UConn reemerges, that’s a team that could win the national championship. We’ve previously addressed the issues Notre Dame dealt with on both ends of the floor. One thing the Irish can’t entirely fix is their lack of dominant post presence — which could be an issue when going up against the likes of Texas and/or TCU — but if Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron play like the best backcourt trio in the country, it might be enough to make up for it.

Creme: Notre Dame was also one of my Final Four picks, but beyond the Irish and LSU, let’s watch Tennessee. This Lady Vols team is unique. With first-year coach Kim Caldwell installing a system that leans on full-court pressure, mass substitutions and high-volume 3-point shooting, Tennessee has a style that can make preparation difficult for an opponent, especially in the second round and regional finals when there is only one day in between games. The Lady Vols are also capable of shooting themselves out of games, so they are a high-risk, high-reward proposition. But it would be fun to watch the Lady Vols get hot and make a run.

Which game are you most looking forward to over the first four days?

Voepel: Admittedly, 8-9 games are supposed to be close. But of the 8-9s, Utah–Indiana could be very good in Birmingham 2. Both teams have sharpshooters. Utes junior guard Gianna Kneepkens has made 90 3-pointers this season while shooting 45% from behind the arc. Hoosiers junior guard Yarden Garzon has made 85 treys while shooting 41.5%.

Among double-digit seeds that might potentially pull upsets, let’s stay in Birmingham 2. No. 14 seed Oregon State, a 2024 Elite Eight team, lost a lot through transfers after the demise of the Pac-12 and the Beavers’ move to the West Coast Conference. But they won that league tournament and now face third-seeded North Carolina. No 14 or 15 seed has ever won an NCAA tournament game dating to 1994, when the women’s field expanded to 64. Could the Beavers become the first?

Philippou: The second round could feature 7-seed Vanderbilt vs. 2-seed Duke and 6-seed Michigan vs. 3-seed Notre Dame. Will Commodores freshman phenom Mikayla Blakes and partner in crime Khamil Pierre transcend Duke’s hard-nosed defense to score a huge upset for Vanderbilt’s first Sweet 16 since 2009? Michigan’s freshmen, headlined by Syla Swords and Olivia Olson, have buoyed the program this year and the Wolverines nearly took down the Gamecocks at the beginning of the season. Could they give Notre Dame a tough time in South Bend?

Creme: No. 11 seed Murray State against No. 6 Iowa is intriguing. The Racers are the country’s top scoring team and Iowa can put up points too. The pace of this game could be furious. Murray State’s Katelyn Young has scored over 3,000 points in her career. Her individual matchup with Hannah Stuelke could be another game within the game. If the Racers can pull the upset, Oklahoma likely awaits, and another shootout could be on tap.

Predicted national championship game matchup

Andrea Adelson: UConn over South Carolina

Jay Alter: UConn over South Carolina

Kendra Andrews: South Carolina over USC

Krista Blunk: UCLA over Texas

Mike Couzens: UConn over South Carolina

Charlie Creme: South Carolina over UConn

Wes Durham: South Carolina over UCLA

Kelly Gramlich: Notre Dame over UCLA

Angel Gray: UCLA over South Carolina

Tiffany Greene: South Carolina over UConn

Jenn Hildreth: USC over Texas

Chuckie Kempf: USC over Notre Dame

Joe Malfa: UConn over Notre Dame

Anne O’Neil: South Carolina over LSU

Kevin Pelton: UConn over South Carolina

Alexa Philippou: UConn over South Carolina

Roy Philpott: South Carolina over UConn

Kelsey Riggs Cuff: USC over South Carolina

Angela Taylor: UCLA over South Carolina

Christy Thomaskutty: South Carolina over UConn

Michael Voepel: South Carolina over UCLA

Helen Williams: South Carolina over USC