MANCHESTER, England — Even when Manchester City have blitzed a path towards the biggest trophies, manager Pep Guardiola has always said his first target is Champions League qualification.

It’s often sneered at, or lost entirely because there are more important things at stake. This season, though, it’s become more pertinent: it’s all Guardiola has left.

Out of the ongoing Champions League campaign and the Premier League title race, City are desperately fighting to make sure this season only goes down as a disappointment rather than an unmitigated disaster. Missing out on qualification for next season’s Champions League would put their 2024-25 campaign firmly in that latter category.

The assumption was that, despite their problems, City would stroll into the Premier League top four, and thus a spot in next season’s Champions League. A top-five finish might even be good enough if the Premier League earns one of UEFA’s performance slots.

But following Man City’s 2-2 home draw with Brighton on Saturday, finishing in the top four or five isn’t guaranteed. With nine games to go, City are fifth and locked in a battle with six other teams for a place in Europe’s top club competition. Fulham, in 10th, are only six points behind.

“I’m always confident,” said Guardiola when asked about the Champions League race. “I find the positiveness in everything.

“Nine games until the end of the season — nine games, nine finals. We didn’t lose and if you can’t win, try to be stable. We had really good moments. We pushed until the end and we take a point.”

In the space of a week, City have discovered just how tough it will be to reach the Champions League. Last weekend, there was a 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest. Guardiola said the performance against Brighton was “much, much, much better” but it still only ended in a draw.

City striker Erling Haaland became the fastest player to reach 100 goal involvements in the Premier League (84 goals and 16 assists in 94 games) with a first-half penalty. Brighton’s Pervis Estupiñán levelled with a wonderful free-kick, but City were ahead again before half-time thanks to Omar Marmoush‘s fierce drive from outside the box.

Brighton’s second equaliser was fortunate in the sense that Jack Hinshelwood‘s scuffed shot hit Abdukodir Khusanov and went in, although the visitors headed back to the south coast thinking they could have taken more from the game. Carlos Baleba somehow found the energy to sprint 70 yards into City’s penalty area with eight minutes to go and just when it looked like he would side-foot a perfect cut-back past Stefan Ortega, he ballooned his shot over the bar.

“It was one of two or three really big chances in the second half where we could go for the winner,” said Brighton manager Fabian Hurzeler, who led Brighton to their first Premier League points at the Etihad Stadium. “We showed an impressive performance, played in our style and showed we can compete with any team in the league. It is a fact we won the first point here, but more a disappointing feeling we didn’t go home with three points.”

City had chances, too. Haaland, Savinho and Marmoush all had opportunities. Nico Gonzalez hit the post with a header. Those missed chances could’ve been the difference — but the real problem is at the other end.

City have now conceded 40 league goals this season, more than in another other campaign under Guardiola. It’s only March and, with John Stones, Nathan Aké and Manuel Akanji all missing, it’s likely the defence will continue to be patched up between now and the summer.

City still have Manchester United, Aston Villa and Bournemouth left to play this season, plus tough trips to Everton and Fulham. Guardiola is expecting the race to go down to the final day when his team visit Craven Cottage to face Fulham.

“It looks like it, until the end, I think so,” he said.

Worryingly, Guardiola made a point of saying qualification will rely on their five remaining home games before immediately admitting that nervousness in the stadium against Brighton had transmitted to the players.

“Everybody felt the pressure,” he said. “It is what it is. We have to play better and after they will [the fans] be back. in the good moments they are there but they feel it when it is not good.”

The pressure is certainly growing.

Guardiola is proud of City’s record of qualifying for the Champions League in each of the last 14 seasons. He had the stat ready ahead of his weekly news conference on Friday. But after the one-two punch of defeat to Forest and a draw with Brighton, the streak is in danger of coming to an end.

Ahead of the season, it was unthinkable that City might not be involved in the title race. You would have got long odds on them not reaching the last-16 of the Champions League, as well. The final indignity would be to miss out on Champions League qualification — something completely unimaginable last summer.

Guardiola insists he’s still confident, but there’s clearly work to do.