Cincinnati Reds RHP Alexis Diaz saved 28 wins in 32 chances last season, but his third MLB season was far from a rousing success, as his 3.99 ERA and 1.30 WHIP finished well above reasonable rates for coveted relief pitchers, let alone reliable closers. Diaz saw a significant decline in his strikeout rate, too. Still, Diaz earned most of his team’s saves, perhaps in part because the sub-.500 Reds lacked any proven replacement options. Fantasy managers may assume Diaz returns to his breakout 2023 numbers, but that seems a tad optimistic these days.

The Reds announced over the weekend that Diaz, 28, will start the season on the IL due to hamstring inflammation, making him quite a problematic investment in fantasy. Perhaps Diaz truly is injured, but it also seems reasonable that new manager Terry Francona simply got tired of seeing the presumed closer struggle to throw strikes (five walks in 3 1/3 innings) during spring training games. Diaz walked more than 30 hitters in each of his first three MLB seasons, and the wildness continued this spring.

This season’s Reds bullpen is deeper in terms of closing options, as LHP Taylor Rogers (with a pair of 30-save seasons to his credit) came over from the San Francisco Giants, and RHP Scott Barlow (added on a one-year contract) closed for the Kansas City Royals for several seasons. Holdover RHP Emilio Pagan may have supplanted Diaz last season had he not missed June and July with a lat injury. RHPs Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft may also figure into late-inning roles. Francona has depth that former manager David Bell did not, and Diaz may find it tougher to hold onto the closer role if he continues to lack control.

Fantasy managers in ESPN standard (shallow) leagues should fade Reds relief options until the season starts and we see what Francona has in mind for a hierarchy. In fairness, it’s possible that Diaz could magically return to health within 10 days and reclaim the closer role. However, he would need to avoid the walks — and a return to his previous fastball velocity figures would be nice, too. The younger brother of New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz was a concern last season, and now we have more to worry about. Bet on some combination of Rogers and Barlow to earn save chances early on, and perhaps beyond.

Stock rising

Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles: Bautista slipped a bit in ADP in recent weeks as the organization played things cautiously with his return from Tommy John surgery, even implying he may not be ready for Opening Day and/or for appearing in consecutive games in April. Ultimately, Bautista is healthy, throwing hard, and he is on the active roster. Perhaps the Orioles manage his workload carefully in April, but the upside we saw during his amazing 2023 campaign remains in play. Invest with confidence.

Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals: Finnegan has never been much help in preventing runs or baserunners — or piling on the strikeouts — but he has saved 66 games over the past two seasons, and the Nationals brought him back in a late-offseason deal. Looking at the team’s bullpen, it seems likely that manager Dave Martinez will stay loyal to the longtime organizational member, who could rank among the top five in career saves for the franchise by season’s end. Invest for the saves in roto leagues (but avoid him in points formats) and then hope all the other numbers don’t hurt too much.

Mike Clevinger, Chicago White Sox: Surprise! The former starting pitcher who struck out 207 hitters for the Cleveland Guardians in 2018 and boasts nary a save to his name appears to be in the lead to close out games here. Scoff if you wish, since the White Sox don’t appear to be considerably improved from last season’s 121-loss disaster, but every save can matter in fantasy. Chicago earned 21 of them in 2024. Let’s assume that number rises some, at the least. Clevinger barely pitched in 2024, but he’s been untouchable in spring games, and new manager Will Venable lacks veteran options. Don’t ask “why Mike Clevinger,” but rather, “why not Mike Clevinger?”

Stock falling

Justin Martinez, Arizona Diamondbacks: It’s nice that Martinez is the recent beneficiary of a five-year contract extension, but manager Torey Lovullo’s refusal to name a closer may be a sign this is a looming committee situation. The hard-throwing Martinez saved eight games last season, but none of them came during the final three-plus weeks. LHP A.J. Puk and RHP Kevin Ginkel may or may not figure into a ninth-inning role, but this lack of clarity makes it difficult to presume anyone here saves 20 games. Puk may be the preferred option for points formats.

Liam Hendriks, Boston Red Sox: Hendriks saved 75 wins for the White Sox in 2021-22 before dealing with a cancer diagnosis and Tommy John surgery, and many presumed he would close for the 2025 Red Sox, if healthy. The problem is that Hendriks has struggled with command issues this spring and reports have new LHP Aroldis Chapman — also no stranger to closing — in the lead for ninth-inning work. Chapman saved 14 games for last season’s Pittsburgh Pirates and he whiffed 98 hitters. This situation remains fluid and perhaps RHP Justin Slaten ultimately becomes involved for saves, too.

David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates: Bednar has struggled for much of the spring, which shouldn’t be a surprise after he pitched to a 5.77 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP last season. He was a frequent, frustrating topic in our bi-weekly Closer Report. As with Alexis Diaz, many fantasy managers probably assume that Bednar returns to his 2023 numbers, when he was a repeat NL All-Star. That said, Pirates manager Derek Shelton is under no obligation to stick with an underperforming option. Unlike the Reds, former closers are not populating the setup ranks in Pittsburgh. Still, RHPs Dennis Santana and Colin Holderman could supplant Bednar at any time, so be careful in assuming anything.