Upsets can be rare in the women’s NCAA tournament. Last year, only one lower seed won a game in the first round, when No. 11 seed Middle Tennessee knocked off No. 6 Louisville.

The 2023 women’s NCAA tournament produced four such upsets. There were five in 2022. The second round gave us one last year and two the year before that.

Where will those upsets occur this year? Part analytics and part eye test, Giant Killers forecasts March upsets over the first two rounds of the women’s bracket. We define an upset of any seed separated by three lines. A No. 10 over a No. 7 counts just like a No. 6 beating a No. 3 in the second round.

Here are 10 games we project to end in an upset over the tournament’s first four days, listed in order of most likely to occur, with ESPN BPI projections noted where the data is available.

Note: Because the first First Four isn’t played until Wednesday and Thursday, the Giant Killers model takes all possible matchups into consideration.

Upset chance: 32.6%
First round: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2 (Storrs, Connecticut; Spokane 4)

Two years ago in the NCAA tournament, the Jackrabbits beat USC in an 8-9 game. In 2019, they reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 6 seed, upsetting third-seeded Syracuse in the second round. Coach Aaron Johnston knows about success in March. After facing the nation’s 13th-most difficult nonconference schedule, South Dakota State is prepared for March. The analytics still favor the Cowgirls, but if South Dakota State’s Brooklyn Meyer (17.6 PPG) — not Oklahoma State’s Stailee Heard (16.7 PPG) — is the best player on the court, this is an upset waiting to happen.

Upset chance: 24.2%
First round: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPNews (Raleigh, North Carolina; Spokane 1)

BPI heavily favors the Spartans, but Harmoni Turner is the hottest player in the country, averaging 31.3 points over the Crimson’s past four games. Harvard allows 52.5 points per game, fourth best in the nation. A great player and a great defense are a good recipe for a surprise, especially when the Spartans don’t have the size to make Harvard feel uncomfortable.

Upset chance: 6.5%
First round: 2:30 p.m. ET Friday, ESPNews (Lexington, Kentucky; Spokane 4)

Of all the games on our list, this one has the most lopsided BPI projection. But Kansas State has gone 7-6 since Ayoka Lee was sidelined because of a foot injury in mid-January. The 6-foot-6 center is slated to return for the NCAA tournament. Fairfield makes 8.9 3-pointers per game. Kansas State hits 8.5. Both rank in the top 25 in the country. If the Stags can widen that gap in this game, the formula for the upset is there.

Upset chance: 14.7%
First round: noon ET Saturday, ESPN (Norman, Oklahoma; Spokane 4)

Aptly named, the Racers like to play fast (they rank seventh in the country in pace) and can score. They led the nation with 87.8 points per game. Katelyn Young is a 3,000-point career scorer and might be the best player on the floor in this game. The Hawkeyes’ Hannah Stuelke and Lucy Olsen will have something to say about that, but if Young gets the upper hand, so will the Racers.

Second round: TBD Sunday (Durham, North Carolina; Birmingham 1)

Both are solid favorites to win their first-round games, setting up a matchup between the highest-scoring duo in the country — Vanderbilt freshman Mikayla Blakes (23.2 PPG) and sophomore Khamil Pierre (20.5 PPG) — and the Blue Devils’ top-five defense. Duke’s performance in the second half of the ACC tournament championship game against NC State was one of the best of the season. But that momentum is gone. Blakes, who scored 50 points twice this season, averaged more than 20 points against the rugged defenses of South Carolina and Texas in the SEC.

First round: 11:30 a.m. ET Friday, ESPN2 (Notre Dame, Indiana; Birmingham 3)

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country but they do it in different ways. Audi Crooks is the difference for Iowa State, and the Wolverines might not have an answer for her. The 6-3 sophomore post player was too much for Maryland a year ago (Crooks scored 40 points), and Michigan is smaller than that Terps team. The Wolverines rely heavily on their starters, and their tallest, 6-3 Jordan Hobbs, plays more wing than post. The Cyclones need to get through Princeton in the First Four (7 p.m. ET Wednesday, ESPNU), but they have a 70.2% chance to do so, according to ESPN Analytics.

Second round: TBD Sunday (Fort Worth, Texas; Birmingham 3)

Last year notwithstanding, the Cardinals have been an outstanding NCAA tournament team under Jeff Walz. They made six consecutive Sweet 16 appearances. And this year, Louisville is a young team with nothing to lose. The Horned Frogs are a different story. With eight seniors or graduates, they know this might be their best opportunity for a deep run. That kind of internal pressure can be a hindrance, especially in close games. One of those veteran TCU players, Hailey Van Lith, was part of Louisville’s postseason success before moving on to LSU and now Fort Worth, Texas. But if any coach knows how to defend Van Lith, it’s Walz.

Upset chance: 7.5%
First round: 1:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2 (College Park, Maryland; Birmingham 3)

The Phoenix like to play deliberately. They rank 339th in the country in possessions per 40 minutes. Alabama would rather get Sarah Ashlee Barker, Zaay Green and Aaliyah Nye into space. If Green Bay can control the pace and keep the score in the 50s or low 60s, a frustrated Crimson Tide might struggle. The Phoenix also knock down 36% of their 3-pointers. Hitting enough of those, at the right time in a low-scoring game, is the recipe for a big surprise.

Upset chance: 18%
First Round: 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2 (Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Spokane 1)

This one is pure hunch. BPI gives the Seminoles an 82.0% chance to win this matchup, but the Patriots won their past four games by an average of 19.0 points, including a 15-point victory in the Atlantic 10 tournament championship game. The program turnaround under Vanessa Blair-Lewis has been remarkable. The Patriots won three games the season before she arrived. Four years later, they have 27 wins and are in their first NCAA tournament. Slowing down Ta’Niya Latson will be a challenge. This upset will depend on the nation’s leading scorer having an off game and George Mason riding its momentum.

First round: 2 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPNews (Chapel Hill, North Carolina; Birmingham 2)

The Huskies have to beat Columbia in a First Four matchup (7 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN2), where they have a 58.1% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics. The Mountaineers bring a large dose of defense, but making shots is the best antidote for heavy, full-court pressure. Washington ranks in the top 10 in field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage. If Washington can break West Virginia’s press, there should be plenty of 3-pointers for leading scorers Elle Ladine and Sayvia Sellers.