Black cabs could disappear from London’s roads in 20 years, a thinktank has warned, unless authorities take steps to halt the decline – including giving cabbies bigger loans for new electric taxis and making the Knowledge test easier.

Centre for London said that if the number of taxis in the capital continues to fall at the current rate, there would be none left by 2045.

Alongside the rapid growth of Uber and other private hire firms has been a parallel drop in black cabs, with the number licensed by Transport for London (TfL) dropping from 22,810 in 2013-14 to 14,470 in 2023-24.

In 2024, just 104 licences were issued to new black-cab drivers, compared with 1,010 in 2016.

Only zero-emission capable taxis can now be newly licensed, and the report said the cost of the new electric black cab was an issue, pushing purchase costs up by about 40% since 2017.

A TfL scrappage scheme has ended, and government grants for a plug-in taxi have dropped to £4,000 and will end in 2026.

The report found that the Knowledge of London requirement for black-cab drivers – a test so complex that scientists found it altered the shape of drivers’ brains – was also a deterrent. It said an industry survey by Freenow, a cab-hailing app, found that more than half of private hire drivers had ruled out becoming a black-cab driver because of the lengthy process – typically three years or more – and almost a third considered the Knowledge “too hard”.

The thinktank said TfL should reform the test requirements to encourage more drivers to apply and qualify. It also urged the London mayor to lobby the government for an interest-free loan scheme for newly qualified drivers buying a purpose-built electric black cab.

Antonia Jennings, the chief executive of Centre for London, said: “Black cabs are a fundamental part of London’s cityscape. We must not let them become part of the capital’s history. Alongside their cultural status, cabs offer what Londoners need today – accessible, convenient and safe transport.

“It’s simply unthinkable for London taxis to become extinct by 2045. Government must step up to support the black-cab industry and turn this declining trajectory around, before it’s too late.”

Steve McNamara, general secretary of the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Association, played down the prospects of the taxis, officially known as Hackney carriages – first licensed in 1662, in horse-drawn form – disappearing from London’s streets. “We’ve been here since the time of Oliver Cromwell, and we aren’t going anywhere soon,” he said, but added that the trade was “at a crossroads”.

He said: “With the right support we can cement its crucial role as a fully accessible part of London’s transport mix and the world’s best and greenest taxi service. However, without such support our trade faces very real existential threats and these can no longer be ignored by policymakers.”

Tony Travers, a local government expert and LSE professor, said the traditional London taxi “before it had to react to compete, didn’t provide a great service: it may always have been regulated and accessible for disabled people, but Londoners will know it was never very easy to get them to go south of the river, or a long distance. And standing on a street to hail a cab late on a freezing winter’s night was suboptimal. So the insurgents found it easy to take market share.

“Black cabs have caught up on all this stuff eventually – they won’t disappear. Even if they were a purely heritage thing there would be a market for them: they remain a very powerful signifier of London.”

A spokesperson for TfL said: “We recognise that black cabs play a vital role in the capital’s transport system.

“We will soon be publishing a new taxi and private hire action plan to ensure they continue to play a role in ensuring Londoners can move around the capital safely, sustainably and efficiently.”