Alex Ovechkin‘s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record has been relentless, with the milestone approaching, and now the betting markets are starting to take notice. Sportsbooks have begun offering odds on when Ovechkin will notch the historic goal — will it happen at home in Washington, against a longtime rival or under the bright lights of a marquee matchup?

Or will we have to wait for next season?

ESPN BET Sportsbook offers various bets on aspects of this historic chase, which we can explore with some data on his scoring this season.

Opponent for Alex Ovechkin’s 895th regular season career goal In 2024/25 regular season: The least profitable bet here is the one where Ovechkin doesn’t score the milestone this season, but a.) that’s no fun and b.) that’s not as likely as the odds might suggest. Taking does not score 895th this season at +130 doesn’t quite fit the vibe. Ovechkin is on a pace this season to finish with 896 goals.

Of course, that ignores the elephant in the room. The Capitals became the first team to clinch a playoff spot and will continue to cement their positioning as the season winds down. To model Ovechkin’s pace to hit 895 or beyond, he needs to play all 11 remaining games. Is there a world, with all this spotlight and hype, that the Capitals would rest Ovechkin down the stretch? What if the final few games of the season have no bearing on their position headed into the postseason? Most NHL teams would give their 39-year-old offensive linchpin a rest before the playoffs begin. Even though this individual achievement chase does nothing for Washington’s hunt for the Stanley Cup this season, it’s still difficult to think he doesn’t play every game. This is Alexander Ovechkin we are talking about.

If Ovechkin plays the rest of the regular season, goals No. 894 (to tie Gretzky) and No. 895 (to pass him) should come to pass. A regression analysis based on his game logs suggests the 895th goal will likely hit twine in the penultimate game of the season against the New York Islanders on April 15. The Islanders are +250 for this bet, aided by that game, but also by the fact they are the Capitals opponent on April 6, too. So if Ovie rips off a hat trick against the Blackhawks to accelerate his pace, the Islanders have some built in cushion.

The Columbus Blue Jackets are actually the pick with the second lowest odds though, and it’s because they have two games against the Capitals at a critical juncture. The teams will play a home-and-home series on April 12 and April 13, representing the window for the Gretzky-tying goal across those games. But if we look at little closer at the regression model and extend those decimals, it technically has Ovechkin at goal No. 894.89 on April 13, so while the threshold is crossed against the Islanders, this Blue Jackets option at +190 holds some appeal.

But me? I like stories. I’m probably taking the Pittsburgh Penguins at +450 because it’s the best story. It’s the final game of the season. Sidney Crosby and Ovechkin are forever linked across NHL history. There’s no better opponent for this goal to come against.

Alex Ovechkin’s total career regular season goals at the end of the 2024/25 regular season: Unless you have insight into the idea of the Capitals resting Ovechkin for the playoffs, the 894 to 896 inclusive bet at -135 looks safe as houses. Why? If Ovechkin does set the record early, it gives the Capitals every reason in the world to give him a rest before the playoff grind. So pushing past that total doesn’t feel realistic.

Alex Ovechkin’s 895th career regular season goal to be an empty-net goal: Such a fuss being made over this, but no one is yelling at Brandon Hagel or Mikko Rantanen for scoring eight empty-netters this season — the same number as Ovechkin. For the record goal to be an empty-netter, the opposing team will have to be trailing in the game, but close enough that risking the goalie for a comeback is warranted. Considering the most likely window for the goal is coming in the four games featuring the Blue Jackets (twice), Islanders and Penguins, there is a reason the “no” side of this bet has very negative odds at -525. Unless the Blue Jackets or Islanders can really start pushing in the next two weeks, those are likely to be four games against four non-playoff teams.

Method of Alex Ovechkin’s 895th career regular season goal in 2024/25 regular season: Here we have even strength at -220, power play at +160 and, just for fun, shorthanded at 60-1. One of these things is not like the others. Ovechkin last scored a shorthanded goal on Oct. 13, 2021, against the New York Rangers in the first game of the season. Prior to that, it was Jan. 3, 2009, against the Rangers. He actually has only five in his entire career, with the other three coming in his rookie campaign. Meanwhile, 19 of Ovechkin’s goals this season have been at even strength (not empty net) and nine have been on the power play. That balance is reflected in the odds, but I still like the power-play side more here. Again, it has to do with the key window for the key goal: the Islanders are ranked 30th on the penalty kill this season, while the Blue Jackets are 25th.

Period of Alex Ovechkin’s 895th career regular season goal in 2024/25 regular season: Ovechkin’s goals by period this season are 10 in the first, six in the second, 19 in the third and one in overtime. His total shot attempts by period are 139 in the first, 118 in the second, 148 in the third and 12 in overtime. Surprisingly, the first period actually has the highest odds at +250 among non-long shots (overtime is +2,500). Taking the first period looks like a value choice.

Latest odds as of publication. For odds movement, go to ESPN BET.

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Ovechkin’s 889th goal moves him 6 away from breaking Gretzky’s record

Alex Ovechkin nets his 889th career goal to tie the score in the third period, putting him six away from breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record.

Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild

7:30 p.m., Xcel Energy Center

Watch live on ESPN+

Capitals (-1.5, +160), -155 money line
Wild (+1.5, -190), +135 money line
Total 5.5: (Over +100, Under -120)

The question remains: Are we getting an Ovechkin goal this evening? Well, only the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks have allowed more power-play goals against this season, so it feels like an Ovi prop night: Alex Ovechkin total goals over 0.5 (+120). He had a power-play goal against the Wild on Jan. 2 this season, too.

While home underdogs overall have beaten the puck line almost 64% of the time this season, the Wild are only 5-6 against the spread in this scenario. The Capitals are 8-6 against the spread as the road favorite (57.1 percent versus overall road favs rate of 36.1 percent). With Minnesota still missing Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek, there’s no reason to think the Wild can push past the odds in this spot. Take Capitals -1.5 tonight.

The Wild do help trend on the under at home, going low 22 times versus 14 times over (61.1% versus league-wide at-home rate of 53.2%).

Watch for blocked shot props on the Washington side closer to game time. While we all focus on Ovechkin, the Wild allow the third-most blocked shots to opposing defenders this season (11.8 per game). A Martin Fehervary over blocked 1.5 shots prop (-119) could be appealing.