Predicting the Premier League stretch, from Champions League race to relegation

March 18, 2025 admin No Comment 6 Views

Mar 18, 2025, 12:15 PM ET

We are getting closer to the end of the Premier League season, and in my humble opinion, this campaign has been the football version of a tasty sandwich for neutral fans: It’s not the top or bottom that is most appealing, but the middle.

Beginning with the title race, Liverpool‘s crowning moment and their impressive title campaign is almost certainly secure despite their disappointing losses in the Champions League and Carabao Cup final. The Reds need 16 points from their remaining nine games to earn their second Premier League title and match Manchester United for a 20th top division title.

Arsenal, trailing by 12 points, sparked a glimmer of hope thanks to their win against Chelsea on Sunday, but if Mikel Arteta truly looked within himself, he would admit that their hunt for their first Premier League trophy in more than 20 years was over in January, when they failed to sign a striker. Meanwhile, third-place Nottingham Forest are inching closer to a historic Champions League place. But after the Tricky Trees, that’s when it really gets really interesting.

We are witnessing a football version of Wacky Races because only eight points separate fourth (Chelsea) from 11th (Brentford) with nine matches left to play. With Man City drawing with Brighton and Brentford beating Bournemouth, the race for the Champions League and other European competitions remains very competitive. This becomes even more alluring when you consider the fact that fifth place is also now good enough for a Champions League spot.

At the bottom? Well, sadly for Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Southampton, we may be witnessing the worst bottom three in the history of the Premier League.

And now comes the international break, where managers go home every night and light every prayer candle, hoping their players on national team duty come back in one piece with the hope of one final push until May 25, the final day of the 2024-25 campaign. So without further ado, allow me to get my crystal ball and predict the remainder of the season.

Matchday 30: April 1-3

The only April Fool’s joke I predict for midweek is that somebody somewhere will post a fake announcement that Mohamed Salah has signed a new contract with Liverpool. Aside from that, the biggest headache for every team will be fitness as key players return after international duty, which includes crucial World Cup qualifiers. I’m specifically thinking about CONMEBOL, where things are getting heated.

For managers across the league, this is the worst international window to deal with because it comes in the final stretch of domestic competitions, so the hope is that no one suffers a major setback. But are things ever that easy? Let’s not forget that the FA Cup quarterfinals also precede this (March 29-30), which means an extra layer of congestion for teams chasing Europe.

This matchday, I predict that Liverpool plays the Merseyside derby against Everton without one of their South American stars (Alexis Mac Allister, Luis Díaz or Darwin Núñez), but still gets the job done. The magic number for the title now drops to 13, regardless of Arsenal’s tight victory over Fulham.

Salah gets back on track after a few weeks of disappointment by scoring a brace and earning an assist, putting him even with Andy Cole and Alan Shearer with the most goal contributions (47) in a single season (Salah, however, has done it in fewer matches). Nottingham Forest (win vs. Man United), Man City (win vs. Leicester), Newcastle (win vs. Brentford), Bournemouth (win vs. Ipswich), Aston Villa (win at Brighton) and Chelsea (draw vs. Tottenham) all get results too, meaning the race for the Champions League and Europe continues.

The bottom three remain where they are, with Southampton’s relegation soon to be confirmed.

Matchday 31: April 5-7

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Steve Nicol reacts to Liverpool’s 2-1 loss against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup final.

The Manchester derby takes center stage at Old Trafford on Sunday, but the weekend begins with a huge result for Everton, who earn a 1-0 victory over Arsenal at their final encounter at Goodison Park.

Fulham, meanwhile, work extremely hard for a draw against Liverpool as the Cottagers continue to fight for Europe. Salah’s goal breaks the record for most goal involvements in a single season, making his case for the greatest single campaign in the Premier League.

Wolves beat Ipswich Town in a very important fixture as nothing changes at the bottom. Meanwhile, in London, Spurs essentially send Southampton back to the Championship with an absolute rout.

Tottenham fans will ponder on how their season could have gone had this type of performance happened earlier in the campaign, but let’s all calm down. It is Southampton after all: With a goal difference of almost minus-60, the Saints are all but certain to be the first relegated team this season.

Returning to the scene in Manchester, United and City play out an entertaining draw that actually helps Pep Guardiola’s side stay in the race for the top five. But it remains extremely tight.

Matchday 32: April 12-14

This is the weekend that follows the beginning of the UEFA Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League quarterfinals, so those not in European competition aim to take advantage against those still involved.

Arsenal, with Bukayo Saka fit again, are absolutely exhausted after playing a very competitive 2-1 win at the Emirates against Real Madrid, but they know they have to keep going. Newcastle United, who begin three matches in the space of six days, earn six points from nine and continue the fight on their return to Europe, aiming to improve a place for a tournament higher than UEFA’s Conference League, which they earned through winning the Carabao Cup.

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Man City defeat Crystal Palace and Aston Villa top Southampton (who are officially relegated) as the everlasting battle for fifth continues. In terms of Ipswich and Leicester City, their doom is almost set, too, despite Wolves’ draw against Spurs, with the latter facing Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League earlier in the week.

Liverpool, who don’t have to worry about the Champions League anymore, destroy West Ham at Anfield and at the final whistle, there is a thunderous response from the home fans as the Kop stands sings in perfect harmony because they know they can almost taste the title. One more victory, coupled with an Arsenal draw or loss, and the trophy will be theirs.

Matchday 33: April 19-21

The bottom sides take on the top as Liverpool win at Leicester City and Arsenal, fresh from losing to Real Madrid, come out victorious from their trip to Ipswich Town. Liverpool are ahead by 15 points with five games remaining, and their goal difference is so much greater than the Gunners’ that there is only one conclusion for the next matchday.

Wolves, meanwhile, lose to Manchester United (who are also through to the semifinals of the Europa League after beating Lyon) so there is still a microscopic chance for the aforementioned Ipswich and Leicester, but everyone pretty much knows what the outcome will be.

This is also a massive week for Aston Villa, who fall to PSG at Villa Park in the Champions League, but manage to recuperate with a crucial victory over Newcastle United. They continue to push for a place in Europe’s top competition alongside Chelsea, who thrash Ipswich after also securing a final four spot in Europe on Thursday, this time in the Europa Conference League.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s Nottingham Forest have a hiccup as Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs manage some redemption for their season with a victory. They just bowed out to Eintracht Frankfurt in Europe, which is making times tense in North London for the Greek-Australian manager. Can this win save him despite the fact that Spurs once again end the season without silverware?

Meanwhile, in the northwest, the last time Everton won against Man City was in 2017: The Toffees need no extra motivation to get one final victory against the defending champions at Goodison Park. But City, who are looking for their own revenge after drawing 1-1 on Boxing Day, do enough to hold on for a win. Erling Haaland, who has four goals in four matches against Everton, scores a brace.

Matchday 34: April 26-28

Some fixtures are forced to change dates because of the FA Cup semifinals, but let’s begin with the fact that this is the weekend when it becomes official. Arne Slot, in his first season as manager, leads Liverpool to the Premier League title after the team’s emphatic 3-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur.

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It is an incredible achievement, one that deserves so much recognition for more than one reason, but overall, this was a campaign of true excellence. Anfield erupts in joy as Salah celebrates a record-breaking season with his teammates on the pitch.

Nottingham Forest capture an important win over Brentford that keeps them in third, while Newcastle United get back on track with a victory against Ipswich Town, who are officially relegated alongside the Saints and Leicester City.

By the way, the Toon Army are also looking good for a return to the Champions League. There are teams still pushing, but their current stance in fourth place gives them hope.

Matchday 35: May 3-5

The last month of the season is here and, my goodness: If the race for Europe was heating up in April, it’s now a volcano on the verge of eruption. This is also the weekend that follows the first leg of European semifinals, which doesn’t mean much in the Champions League (both Arsenal and Aston Villa bowed out in the previous round).

Tottenham Hotspur are also out of the Europa League, but Manchester United and Chelsea (Conference League) remain alive on the continent, so this adds a little bit more pressure — especially for Enzo Maresca’s side, which now has a massive week as it welcomes Liverpool. But Chelsea take advantage of the fact that the Reds’ season is essentially done and earn a very competitive 1-0 victory. This puts the Blues in fifth with Newcastle United, Aston Villa, Brighton and Bournemouth right behind them.

A word on Man City: They’ve jumped Forest for third place, but Nuno’s team is still in a Champions League spot. The gap is now four points.

Matchday 36: May 10-12

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A few days earlier, just one Premier League team sealed their place in a European final: Chelsea who booked a ticket to the Conference League final. Man United, meanwhile, fall to Athletic Club, but not without a good fight.

Both sides, therefore, are shattered. Newcastle United take advantage and win against the Blues, putting them back in fifth place. Man City and Nottingham Forest remain above them and with just six points available from here, both are very, very close to cementing their place in the Champions League. The Premier League’s extra spot remains firmly in contention for multiple clubs.

Matchday 37: May 17-18

It’s the weekend of the FA Cup final, and perhaps it’s the romantic in me, but this is the season in which Aston Villa lift the trophy, their first major piece of silverware since 1995-96. As a result, some fixtures are moved, but not without some conclusions as Arsenal’s win over Newcastle cements second place for the Gunners.

In addition, Man City beat Bournemouth at the Etihad while Nottingham Forest earn a late draw against West Ham thanks to a stoppage-time goal from Chris Wood. With their results, they both secure their places in the Champions League for next season. A statue of Espirito Santo is in the works as the Portuguese manager achieves something that seemed laughable at the beginning of the season. Surely, if anyone is to beat Arne Slot for Manager of the Season, it’s Nuno.

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As for the rest and the battle for fifth? Chelsea currently occupy it but only on goal difference as Newcastle, Aston Villa and Brighton stay alive. The final day of the season will come with a tremendous amount of drama.

Matchday 38: May 25

Here we are: the final day of the season. The title and the fate of those who will go down to the Championship are set. The top four is also finalized as Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Nottingham Forest fill up the Champions League berths.

There’s only one allocation to figure out: Aston Villa can only earn a draw at Old Trafford against Manchester United, while Chelsea, with an eye on a European final three days from this day, fall 1-0 to Forest, who are so good at home and celebrate securing Champions League football in front of their fans at City Ground.

Brighton manage only a point against Tottenham, which means Newcastle United, thanks to their emphatic victory over Everton, return to the Champions League. It’s a truly remarkable achievement for Eddie Howe’s team, whose Conference League place, which was earned after winning the EFL Cup, goes down the pecking order.

Liverpool also finish the season with 92 points, the second-highest tally after their 2019-20 title-winning campaign under Jurgen Klopp.

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The final positions and who clinched what

Clinched Champions League for 2025-26

Liverpool (champions), Arsenal (second place), Manchester City (third), Nottingham Forest (fourth), Newcastle United (fifth; also won the Carabao Cup)