“It makes sense to Rachel Reeves, I don’t know if it makes sense to anyone else,” said a grumbling pub-goer on hearing the news that pints are expected to rise above the £5 mark for the first time in history next month.

According to research by Frontier Economics commissioned by the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), the average price of a pint of beer is expected to reach £5.01 in April, a 21p rise.

The increase is down to bigger overheads, including a rise in the national minimum wage and in national insurance. Discounts on business rates that hospitality businesses have been entitled to are also decreasing, from 70% to 40%.

In the West Yorkshire market town of Otley, arguably the UK’s most well known pub town, afternoon drinkers did not welcome the news.

“I think this summer it will get to the point where on a nice sunny day people will just sit in the garden because they can’t afford to go to the pub,” said one man. He said though he had retired five years earlier, he had needed to go back to work as a delivery driver to keep up with the cost of living.

“Without a doubt, I can feel the cost of living crisis,” he said. “You go to supermarkets and you just see everything going up.”

At the Bowling Green, a large Wetherspoon’s pub with a sunny yard at the front, some people felt the price rises would not affect them too much, because they bought the cheapest pint in the cheapest place they could.

“It is what it is. We go somewhere where it’s cheap,” said Gary Swain drinking a Bud Light, costing £1.89. “It’s a nice pint. You get used to what you get used to.”

He said he usually drinks in Wetherspoon’s and in his local club in Harrogate. “You’d always find somewhere to go,” said Swain, who works as a forklift driver at the Heineken brewery in Tadcaster, 20 miles east.

“I work so it doesn’t bother me. If you can’t afford it then don’t go out.”

That is something publicans fear will happen. Pubs, bars and clubs have been closing at startling rates, with the number of pubs falling below 39,000 for the first time in December 2024, according to the property data company Altus Group.

Otley locals used to say the town had the most pubs per person of anywhere in the UK. They currently number 24 with a population of fewer than 15,000 people.

It was the first place to have all of its pubs listed as assets of community value, which means they have greater protections against being closed down, and in recent months this has helped the community to take over one that would have otherwise closed. In many ways, the town is lucky. People travel from far and wide to come to the West Yorkshire town, which borders the Yorkshire Dales and is overlooked by moorland, for a pint in a traditional pub.

Inside the Old Cock, an independent pub that has won awards from the Campaign for Real Ale, a fire roars and old men sup pints pulled by knowledgable bar staff.

“[The breweries] have all put their prices up now,” said Lisa Choppen, the pub’s manager.

She said customers did not always understand that pubs and bars had already cut back wherever they could.

“They think a pint should just go up by 10p. We’ve been taking a big hit, the brewery is also taking a big hit.

“Our biggest cost is staffing. We tried to cut hours when we can but if you’re too busy you can’t send people home. And we all want to earn a good wage.”

Business rates were also crippling pubs, she said.

“It’s cheaper to drink at home. You can get a bottle of wine for the same price as a large glass. But people come here because it’s social. You make friends here.”

At the bar, many customers had views as they paid for their pints, some of which were already priced at £5.95, for a 6% beer from a local brewery.

“It feels like the government is driving people indoors,” said Wayne Sutcliffe, a punter who had travelled from Sheffield. “That’s how you end up with loneliness, seclusion, isolation.”

The woman he was talking to at the bar agreed: “An actual pub is going to be a thing of the past. This is all going to be flats.”

Choppen added: “I always say”: ‘It’s use it or lose it’. If you don’t use your local, it won’t be here.”