Your guide to the men’s national title game: How Florida, Houston could each win
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Jeff Borzello
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Myron Medcalf
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Myron Medcalf
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college basketball
- Joined ESPN.com in 2011
- Graduate of Minnesota State University, Mankato
And then there were two. Perhaps this duo battling for a national championship is unexpected. But Florida and Houston each played strong during the regular season. Both dominated their conference tournaments. Both are 1-seeds. Both defeated tough opponents to get to Monday.
Now, everything’s on the line Monday night (8:50 p.m. ET, CBS).
The Gators are looking for their first national championship since their back-to-back titles in 2006 and 2007 with Billy Donovan. The Cougars are seeking their first national championship. Both coaches are also searching for their first national titles.
For a final time this season, ESPN’s Myron Medcalf and Jeff Borzello break down each team, and pick who will cut down the nets.
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Florida | Houston | Picks
1:04
What kind of challenge is Florida facing vs. Houston?
Seth Greenberg previews Florida’s matchup vs. Houston for the national title.
How Florida reached the Final Four:
How can the Gators contend with Houston’s physicality? This has been the primary question for every Houston opponent for the past 11 years. Kelvin Sampson’s Houston teams have finished top-15 in adjusted defensive efficiency in seven of the past eight seasons, which means Florida’s bigs will have to be relentless in rebounding, attacking the paint and playing exceptional interior defense. Houston outscored Duke 19-12 on second-chance points Saturday, and the Gators will have to close that gap to win.
But this game is also about endurance. The Blue Devils were exhausted by the end of Saturday night — a byproduct of a grueling, 40-minute game against Houston. Florida needs its big men to avoid foul trouble, challenge the Cougars around the rim on offense and defense and have the stamina to play an intense pace for two halves. It’s a daunting task that only one team has achieved since Nov. 30 against Houston.
Who must step up for Florida? Will Richard. The list of standout guards Houston has held to shaky offensive performances in March is long: Robert Wright III (Baylor), Julian Hammond III (Colorado), Egor Demin (BYU), Braden Smith (Purdue), Zakai Zeigler (Tennessee) and Tyrese Proctor (Duke). Walter Clayton Jr. could be added to that group Monday.
But the Gators are not a one-man show. Richard is the only member of Florida’s starting backcourt who has had three single-digit efforts over the past five games. The 6-foot-4 senior made 38% of his shots from beyond the arc in league play, but was 0-for-5 from the 3-point line in his previous two games. That all has to change Monday night. Duke and its three projected lottery picks and the national player of the year needed more help against Houston, even after it had a 14-point lead. Richard will have to contribute.
The Gators’ potential fatal flaw: Giving opponents too many opportunities at the free throw line. Florida was a top-25 defensive team over the final month of the season. It’s a key element of its comebacks throughout the NCAA tournament. But the Gators have also committed too many fouls recently. Nine of their past 11 opponents had at least 22 free throw attempts. Houston benefited Saturday night from a couple of costly fouls by Duke, making four crucial free throws in the final seconds. That could happen again Monday night if the Gators put the Cougars on the free throw line too often.
Florida will win if … Walter Clayton Jr. scores 25 points or more. Because of the way Florida plays and how much it relies on Clayton as a ball handler, the Gators will only go as far as he takes them. When he is a potent scorer and playmaker, opponents are forced to double him, creating more opportunities for his teammates. The Gators will face the best defense in America and although they’ve overcome nearly impossible odds in the NCAA tournament, Houston’s Saturday night comeback over Duke was almost unprecedented. If Clayton gets hot Monday night, it will likely mean the Gators — ranked second in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency — are rolling and have found the holes in that vaunted Houston defense. If he struggles, it will complicate everything Florida wants to do against Houston, especially if the Gators have another second-half deficit standing between them and their title dreams. — Myron Medcalf
How Houston reached the Final Four:
How can the Cougars contain Walter Clayton Jr.? If anyone’s going to slow down Walter Clayton Jr., it will be the best defense in college. Houston is incredibly physical, both on and off the ball, and doesn’t make anything easy for opponents. The Cougars will likely look to deny Clayton easy catches in rhythm, and make sure he doesn’t get clean looks.
But Clayton didn’t have a ton of clean looks against Texas Tech or Auburn and still put up historically good performances. One area to watch will be the 3-point line. Houston has a strong 3-point defense, but it allows 3-point shots. That’s not a recipe for stopping Clayton.
Who must step up for Houston? This is another potentially massive game for J’Wan Roberts. He should enter with plenty of confidence after making the biggest plays in the final seconds against Duke: boxing out Cooper Flagg to draw the foul, making two free throws, and contesting Flagg’s potential game-winning shot. He was inconsistent over the past month or so, and also missed two games because of an ankle injury.
He’ll have to be at his best against Florida and its elite frontcourt. That means being active and aggressive on the offensive glass and staying out of foul trouble at the other end of the floor. The Gators have size and depth to throw at Houston on Monday night, and Roberts has to stay on the floor.
The Cougars’ potential flaw: Houston doesn’t have many weaknesses. But two areas to watch will be the free throw line, and whether the Cougars can avoid the offensive droughts that nearly dug them too big a hole against Duke. Houston was 12th out of 16 Big 12 teams in defensive free throw rate and 14th in offensive free throw rate. The Cougars averaged fewer free throw attempts per game than their opponents.
Florida isn’t good at getting to the free throw line — and is even worse at making those shots — but if the officials aren’t letting Houston be physical and players such as Clayton and Will Richard and Thomas Haugh are getting to the line, that’s bad news for the Cougars.
Meanwhile, L.J. Cryer single-handedly kept Houston within striking distance Saturday, hitting multiple 3s against the Blue Devils — but didn’t get much help from his teammates until late in the second half. It’s hard to see that working again.
Houston will win if … It wins the war on the backboards and limits Clayton. Fortunately for the Cougars, both are in the wheelhouse of a Kelvin Sampson-coached team. The Cougars are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country — it’s a big spot for Roberts and Joseph Tugler — ranking 10th in offensive rebounding percentage and the top 20 in second-chance points per game. (Though Florida is huge and even better at offensive rebounding, statistically.)
At the other end, Houston’s guards will have to stick to their principles against Clayton. Auburn had some early success blitzing him on ball screens and forcing the ball out of his hands, but as the game wore on, he consistently got to his left hand and into a rhythm. Houston will likely have the same ideas, going over ball screens, hard-hedging, blitzing to get the ball out of Clayton’s hands and making sure he doesn’t get a clean look. — Jeff Borzello
Florida vs. Houston predictions
Jeff Borzello: Houston wins, 67-65
Myron Medcalf: Houston, 70-67
